Rapido newsletter #165, a survey for N scalers

[delamaize]

Okay, so can I have my NP Radial Roof boxcars now?   

Only if I get a few also.

[thomasjmdavis]

Only if I get a few also.

I'd be in for a couple of the radial roof boxcars as well. 
Although no more pre-orders for me until the work on the house is done, and in the case of Rapido, after the repairs/remodeling AND after the Rr-56's are delivered, which doesn't look like ti will be anytime soon.

[craigolio1]

“and most will risk getting a turd for fear of missing out.

At least that's how I am.”

If a mfg announces pre-orders for something I need but their offerings are hit and miss, I'd probably hold my nose, cross my fingers, and pre-order.

You can put me in this category.

There is one manufacture that I have literally been dealing with for five years on an issue. I have a ton of feelings about it as I’m into the project for $$$ and commitments were made that are not being followed through upon. Yet I keep purchasing other new announcements. The fact is they have been very good to me on other projects including special one offs and replacement parts… and the models they make are models very specific to my railroad and time period. So I keep ordering.

In the case of Rapido I have pre-ordered MANY things. And most of them needed work upon receipt… GMD-1, LRCs, The Canadian, CN caboose, FP9A …. And yet these are pieces that now work a great and I’d rather be where I am now than not have them. I will say that Rapido has been incredibly responsive to me in my need for parts or service and to me that goes along way. Of course I agree that these issues shouldn’t happen in the first place. But I’ll likely keep ordering. I’ve modified or kitbashed pretty much every locomotive I’ve ever purchased (and lots of them are expensive) through choice not necessity, so when you think about it the only thing that’s different in this case is the context of the work required. I’m a modeller so I’ll keep on modelling. I feel for the R-T-R crowd.

Someone made a comment, and I’m paraphrasing here, basically saying that by manufacturing to pre-order numbers, or close to, that you are only serving those who already want your product, and not the 10,000 potential customers you haven’t reached yet. That’s a very interesting statement that I had never thought of before. I’m one of those people who googles the crap out of things I’m looking for, for years, and so I feel pretty in tune to what manufacturers are making that could be of interest to me… but there must be a lot of consumers out there who just go to an LHS or their favourite website and buy what they like. If the product never makes it to the “store” shelves then it’s not there for that person to purchase.

Craig.

[cv_acr]

Someone made a comment, and I’m paraphrasing here, basically saying that by manufacturing to pre-order numbers, or close to, that you are only serving those who already want your product, and not the 10,000 potential customers you haven’t reached yet. That’s a very interesting statement that I had never thought of before. I’m one of those people who googles the crap out of things I’m looking for, for years, and so I feel pretty in tune to what manufacturers are making that could be of interest to me… but there must be a lot of consumers out there who just go to an LHS or their favourite website and buy what they like. If the product never makes it to the “store” shelves then it’s not there for that person to purchase.

Don't forget that most of those pre-orders will be placed by shops, either on behalf of their own customers submitting pre-orders, plus some for their own stock. The only way something ends up in the store is for the store to buy it from the manufacturer.

So there's definitely a multi-layer effect here.

Stores get pre-orders from their clients, and submit them to the manufaturer. Based on perceived demand from their pre-orders, they'll decide on how much to order for shelf stock.

Depending on the manufacturer there could be an extra layer in between here for distributors.

Manufacturer gets pre-orders from their clients (the stores and/or distributors). Based on pre-order demand, they'll decide how much extra to produce to cover additional orders and stock. (The manufacturer will likely be trying to keep very little stock on hand after the production run goes out.)

[Ed Kapuscinski]

Don't forget that most of those pre-orders will be placed by shops, either on behalf of their own customers submitting pre-orders, plus some for their own stock. The only way something ends up in the store is for the store to buy it from the manufacturer.

So there's definitely a multi-layer effect here.

Stores get pre-orders from their clients, and submit them to the manufaturer. Based on perceived demand from their pre-orders, they'll decide on how much to order for shelf stock.

Depending on the manufacturer there could be an extra layer in between here for distributors.

Manufacturer gets pre-orders from their clients (the stores and/or distributors). Based on pre-order demand, they'll decide how much extra to produce to cover additional orders and stock. (The manufacturer will likely be trying to keep very little stock on hand after the production run goes out.)

This deserves much more attention when people complain about the "preorder world". Preorders aren't just individuals. Part of the value add of retailers and distributors is that they take on the risk to stock products.

[Cajonpassfan]

The latest new MTL freight car is the PS-2 2-bay cement hopper.  The next freight car is the ATSF 65' mill gondola.  Both transition-era freight cars.  And MTL has released schemes on the 33' 2-bay hopper, single-dome tank, 40' sliding door boxcar with roofwalk, 40' plug door boxcar with roofwalk, 50' gon with drop ends, 3-dome tank and 50 flatcar this year.

Atlas has the ex-BLMA ACF gondola, the 2-bay offset hopper and the USRA steel rebuilts in the Master line and a ton of transition-era Trainman models scheduled for release this year.

And to be fair, IMRC has transition-era boxcars, reefers and tank cars on reservation, but the numbers haven't been hit yet to trigger production.

There are still plenty of transition-era models being released regularly from the larger manufacturers.

"There are still plenty of transition-era models being released...."

That's a rather definitive statement. I don't mean to be argumentative, but I disagree.
Perhaps the term "transition era" needs a better definition. To me, the PS-2 which came into use in the mid to late fifties is not a "transition era" car; by then most mainline steam was relegated to a small handful of roads. And if MT releases an ATSF 65' mill gondola noted, I'll be shocked; more likely a new paint job on the 30 plus year 52' gon.
Their tank cars? Great for collectors with their colorful series, but many date to the twenties, not exactly transition era either.
Yes, MT releases occasional new paint schemes, but no new tooling.
BLMA ACF gon? Built when? Atlas has a ton of Master line cars scheduled for release? We'll see.
Intermountain? Please...

It maybe that typical transition era cars don't sell any more, and I'd understand if those are pragmatic business decisions.
But we're not getting "plenty" transition era cars any more, imho.
YMMV, Otto K.

[bbussey]

What’s your definition of “transition era”?  Steam-to-diesel is my understanding.

The first PS-2 debuted earlier than the late 1950s. New Haven bought theirs in 1954.

The MTL 65’ mill gondola is their next scheduled new model.

You can peruse the Atlas release schedule to see what is in production, but suffice to say that there are a number of transition-era freight releases on the horizon.

The reality is that while most of the focus is on modern-era equipment, the transition-era market is not being neglected.

[thomasjmdavis]

"There are still plenty of transition-era models being released...."
....
And if MT releases an ATSF 65' mill gondola noted, I'll be shocked; more likely a new paint job on the 30 plus year 52' gon.
....
It maybe that typical transition era cars don't sell any more, and I'd understand if those are pragmatic business decisions.
But we're not getting "plenty" transition era cars any more, imho.
YMMV, Otto K.

Otto, I agree with your response, other than the statement about MTL's announced gondola.

 We had a discussion about it back in June of last year, the thread was started by @MTLJoe and when posted included a flyer on the car (which is now showing as an expired URL according to my browser).  I do hope that this does not turn into another "combine", but I can't imagine that they would go to the trouble of producing promotional material showing the builders photo of a Ga-48, a year in advance, for a foobie paint job on their 14 panel fishbelly gondola (which itself scales 3' short of all the 14 panel gons I have dimensions for, but I can't say there weren't any somewhere that were 50'OD).
That said, if they want to produce a 50', 12 panel Ga 49 or 53, I would be all for it, and would buy more of those than I will of the Ga-48.
I guess the other thing I will say is that I want the 50s lettering (ATSF and appropriate shop date), rather than either the original 1940 "A.T.S.F." or the heavily weathered, last one remaining in a marked out BNSF logo MoW version.

https://www.therailwire.net/forum/index.php?topic=54270.msg744002#msg744002
And as a matter of opinion, I think the MTL tank car does fit the transition era- the 20s paint schemes are throwbacks, as when they put a 1937 AAR scheme on their 1950-ish PS1. But at this point, I don't think I need any more tank cars, other than maybe picking up another TK-J for MoW use.

The Atlas/BLMA 52' gondola is a PRR G31 of 1948.  According to their release announcement (see Spookshow's site) there were "several other" roads that ACF built these gons for, but they don't mention which.  They also made a 65' gon

And to be fair to Bryan, at the time he wrote that post, IMRC was a week away from their cancellation announcement.

Still, the fact that there are so few options, makes your point that there is precious little coming out in transition freight equipment.  And MANY of the releases of transition era cars are coming out in 1960s paint schemes.

[thomasjmdavis]

The first PS-2 debuted earlier than the late 1950s. New Haven bought theirs in 1954.

But the version that MTL is producing first appeared in 1957. The earlier version had channel ribs as the first and last rib. This was much discussed on the thread we had when they announced the PS-2.

[dem34]

I mean, Atlas has still been fairly regularly releasing 1940s-50s era rolling stock still. Think the 1932 ARA is pretty recent.

[nickelplate759]

I mean, Atlas has still been fairly regularly releasing 1940s-50s era rolling stock still. Think the 1932 ARA is pretty recent.

Interesting you brought up the 1932 ARA release - the NKP cars in the most recent run are decorated as post-merger N&W cars that didn't have their numbers changed.  There's a 1967 weigh date on them, for example.
Even more interesting - the first run Atlas did of these cars lettered NKP mimicked the builder's photo.   So I don't think Atlas has ever released these cars for NKP in-service!

[squirrelhunter]

I agree with Otto, transition era means stam and diesel, and steam was out of service by 1954 on most roads. Even holdouts that ran steam into 1958-60 tended to do in geographically concentrated areas (B&O's west end, the far northern/southern ends of the C&S/FW&D, SP in California) compared to the NKP or N&W where steam ruled the whole mainline.

Bryan is right, I forgot the MTL 65' mill gon. But I think their monthly releases have been lighter on transition era lately.

But the big blow is Intermountain canceling pretty much all their transition era cars in the pipeline. And IM has a lot of key steam era cars:
1937 AAR box
1937 modified AAR 10' 6" box
12 panel box
50' AAR double door box
50' AAR single door box
ATSF steel reefers
PFE steel reefers
ATSF stock cars
8,000 gallon tank cars
USRA composite gondolas

And I think they now are responsible for the old Red Caboose 42' flats?

All those cars used to be fairly common at shows around here, but some (50' boxes, USRA composite gons, 1937 mod AAR boxes, and the Red Cabose flats) have become hard to find and are not terribly common on ebay either.

[bbussey]

Tom makes an excellent point regarding the MTL 65000-series tankcar, in which the bulk of the schemes released on the car have pre-dated the prototype. If you need transition, buy some undecs and paint your own.

Also, don’t all the Bluford coal hopper models count?  How many transition-era schemes with multiple road numbers have been released in the last five years on multiple models? Dozens. More than the Bluford post-1960 models. Coal hoppers are the second most populous bodystyle after boxcars in that era.

Don’t the Wheels of Time 53’ flatcars count?  Of which the next release is imminent?

New ESM 65’ mill gondolas are coming at the end of the summer, in multiple roads/schemes and new body variations, most of which overwhelmingly operated in the transition era.

Yes, the InterMountain announcement is a big blow. But there remain a number of transition-era models still active. And it’s not as if you can’t find examples of prior releases that you don’t have, including the InterMountain cars. I tracked down all twelve New Haven 1937 AAR boxcars and duplicates well after they were released and discontinued by the manufacturer.

I don’t get the reason for the complaints. Given we’ve all been building our equipment rosters for decades, this is more of a “want” than a “need” as this point. There are 50 years of quality rolling stock models to hunt down, and it’s now possible to 3D-print (or etch, or old-fashion scratchbuild) to fill any unique holes.

[bigdawgks]

Well some of us haven't been in the hobby for decades and are relying wholly on a dwindling supply of second hand stock. I too have managed to hunt down a bunch of stuff this way but it's not really ideal. It does effectively raise the barrier to entry for new modelers of those eras.

[thomasjmdavis]

Bryan,
I don't think anyone is arguing that there are NO transition era models available. And we are happy to see cars like the ESM (improved tooling based on your remarks) and MTL (new tooling) 65' gondolas. I hope in both cases that the sales of early paint schemes demonstrates that transition era modelers are alive and well and still buying stuff.

I have been modeling in N scale exclusively since 1978. I am no longer "building a fleet"- almost all of my purchases in the past 10 years are related to trying to improve the prototype accuracy of that fleet- one of the early examples was 8 or 10 years ago (I think), when I replaced MTL "standard" boxcars painted with "State of Maine" logos with ESM models of the actual prototype cars (although I think those MTL cars are still in a box somewhere). What I "need" are not more MTL PS-1s in various "stand in" paint schemes, what I need are vastly improved models of the composite wood-steel ARA cars that were in every manufacturer's catalog 40 years ago. I need are 50' gondolas based on actual 50' gondolas of the 30s and 40s, not "selectively compressed" 53' gondolas. And I need 53' 14 panel gondolas that are 53 scale feet.  Not the 1960s versions, but the late 40s and early 50s versions, preferably ATSF, but I could work with others and modify.  Fine with me if they are in kit form (actually, I would prefer- I can do a lot of detail work myself)- I am not great with an airbrush, but I seem to be able to manage mineral brown and boxcar red, and every week K4 comes out with more decals for such cars.
 
You are absolutely correct on the Bluford hoppers, which run the gamut from 1918 to 1960 in their various styles and what seem like 100 road names. And some of their cabooses are at least "close" approximations of various bay window cabooses of the early-mid 1950s. I'm sure I've bought more Bluford cars new in the past 10 years than any other brand of freight car. Frankly, the very fact that they did all those paint schemes on all those hoppers, and while you can still find some, most roads are relatively rare on eBay and other secondary markets, demonstrates that the demise of transition era modelers may be exaggerated by some other manufacturers.

I would note on the WoT flatcars that the earliest date on a car in this run is 1957 (the B&M cars). Most are 60s and 70s build dates and paint jobs. And most roads, other than SP (1953 and did PRR weld cars early on?) , did not have large numbers of welded flatcars prior to the late 50s, Santa Fe, for instance, built their first ones in 1958, IIRC, and their large orders in 1949 through 56 were for GSC cast frame cars.
https://www.wheelsotime.com/n-53-6-welded-fish-belly-flatc/

As you point out, I, and I am sure many here, have "enough" freight cars. The IM announcement is an "inconvenience" for me. What I would have done had those cars been produced would have been to replace many of the MTL "stand in" PS1s I have that are pretending to be (were painted for) various AAR car classes, and adjusted my roadname mix a bit. What I am looking/hoping for are new tooling of prototypical cars that were common in freight trains of 1955-56- which means cars built in the late 30s to the early 50s, along with some older cars that survived in more or less original form, and the rebuilds of USRA and ARA cars thankfully, IMRC did the ATSF reefer rebuilds, the most common reefer on the ATSF from 1940-1960.