Where Will N Scale Be in Ten Years?

[rsn48]

Talked about this with my buddies on New Year's Eve and the "health" of the hobby.  These guys are HO and doom and gloom, we are all getting older, not enough new folk to replace us, electronic entertainment is stealing from the hobby, its going to sink. 

My own view is that the manufactures are going to have to wake up and put together some "lost leader" packages with current passenger trains that service the cities, not the long haul stuff but the short inter-urban goodies, like West Coast Express here in Vancouver and the Sounder in Seattle.

In arguements with the transition era guys, I think more young people are taking passenger trains, but not like the ones we took in our youth.  For instance in Vancouver, there are more passenger trains in and out of the city than ever before but only different, there is light rapid transit trains, long haul trains like Amtrak and the Canadian and this is what the young folk see; the steam stuff is an era gone by, its fun to see and run, but it doesn't hold the fascination for some like my son, whom I had to show how to work a "dial" phone.

The manufactures are addicted to the transition era guys because they are the ones spending the big bucks, but ignore your youth of today at your own peril.

[mark dance]

No sound in the locos; the sound will be broadcast directly to a wireless ear piece worn by each operator so they can hear what their crew would hear...as well as other things in the layout room.  (Lance Mindheim is doing this now for one engine but I'd like to hear each unit of a four unit consist go in and out of synch)

The space saved by not having a speaker can then either be used for very high capacity batteries, so that there is no need to feed power to the rails, or for micro miniature cameras broadcasting forward looking video images from the engine to "heads up" displays that the engineer wears.  Recon Insutrments has this technology for ski googles now and Google and Apple are working on delivering content to eyeglasses to eventually replace smart phones.  A HUD allows the operator to see the layout *and* the engineer's view.

One can dream...great thread!

md

[Rossford Yard]

I see continued gradual improvement at a price.  Basically, if it can be made better and easier to use, it will be over the next ten years.

I think Accumates will be redesigned to be stronger, and maybe some sort of automatic coupler w/ DCC will put all of them out of biz. 

I agree on switch stands, but think they will be cosmetic on top of a new switch motor that mounts/is built in as part of some line of turnouts, a la Kato.  Actually, I see more sectional track, a la Atlas Code 65, with a full line of more flexible, rubberized and realistic roadbed. (and Kato like electrical connections)

I see a continuation of "boutique" mfgs, using shapeways to do more and varied prototypes for road specific stuff like SW1500, and various cabeese.  Even more freight cars will come out, even more road specific.

I see a continuation of the pre weathered trend.  And more pre-built structures, perhaps with some customization, a la Walthers modulars but pre assembled, with less glue, and more snap together.

More layouts will be built by contractors, perhaps the ultimate RTR trend.  Less will be built with lumber.

I would hope for some sort of battery control locos to end the track cleaning nightmare, but that would be all scales.

In general, I see nothing but improvements, especially when the economy improves.

[Scottl]

To me, change is kind of a stair step process, where a major innovation bumps everything up a notch, and then there is a period as it is adopted and broadly comes into use.  I think DCC is an example of this, and another would be the much improved operating quality of locomotives that Atlas/Kato brought to n-scale.

As good as things are right now, I think we are in a period of modest change for nscale, with the release of a new models of excellent quality, some overall improvement in detailing of what is available, and wide adoption of DCC. 

Ten years from now, I can see the RP taking off to the point where we see a radical change in the way we get our models.  The era of highly specific models at modest cost will come based on RP and a cottage industry of 3D modellers who design for personal and commercial reasons.  This will be a huge step forward and will attract a lot of new blood to the hobby, coming from the 3D design generation.

I could see something interesting emerging from manufacturers in response to this- a modular system of motors and drive systems that would be flexible enough to provide the guts for a huge variety of different models.  This will be easier for diesel than steam, but I also see interest in steam waning as the hobby ages.

[wm3798]

Maybe I'll have a layout again...

[johnh35]

Model railroading will be banned due to the ozone generated by the electric motors....LOL!

[Kisatchie]

Model railroading will be banned due to the ozone generated by the electric motors....LOL!

Hmm... this might be
the time to invest in
wind-up locos...

[TiVoPrince]

Bluetooth 
or similar communication/sound repurposed for layouts (even allowing visitors to 'tune in' at NTRAK and similar shows) directly to your ear.  Somewhere ALPS white decals (or a similar system) make a comeback because we keep losing small producers.

New manufacturers fill niches left by Sunrise and others and a new era of detailing begins.

Rapid prototyping matures to the point that most anything is possible, including flexible handrails and heavy metal frames.  RP won't yet be common in the home in 2023, but most towns will have a storefront shop or even co-located at your LHS with a turnaround time similar to your dry cleaners. 

Home brewed locos roam the rails nationwide.  Ordering up that highly desired and well detailed SDP45 shell, frame, and handrails along with motor, driveline, trucks, pickups, cab/glass, and other hardware from Atlas Parts then choose a decoder or DC board and you can 'roll your own' RP custom loco with not much more than a screwdriver and some paint...

[VonRyan]

DCC decoders will be much smaller, and sound decoders will be more accurate and compact with amazeball speakers that are tiny yet powerful.
Dapol's terrier will finally be DCC ready, their 14xx being their testing platform for the new method.
All Locomotive will be DCC ready, all steam locos will be DCC equipped and sound addition ready.
Brass loco prices will fall due to cheaper, ready-to-run, plastic locos being available.
No prototype will be left un-produced (more like in 50 years, but what the heck).
Only problem will be that Railroads will be have conglomerated into a massive Union Pacific, back to running massive steam engines on coal due to massive oil prices, and ethanol being where gasoline is now.
I will have five layouts in various states of completion, always falling behind when ideas for new N-Trak modules pop into my head.
N will have a massive R.P. industry due to CAD programs being able to produce 3-d renderings from technical-drawings/blueprints and photographs.

-Cody F.

[seusscaboose]

Maybe I'll have a layout again...

FTW

[Nato]

               Sorry to burst everyone's prediction bubbles,but Z Scale will be the major force and in second place T Gauge,soon to be scale,because of advances in minature electronics and micro micro size motors.        Nate Goodman (Nato). "Aint Nano Technology wonderful!"

[DKS]

Sorry to burst everyone's prediction bubbles,but Z Scale will be the major force and in second place T Gauge,soon to be scale,because of advances in minature electronics and micro micro size motors.

Um... don't think so. You can improve motors and electronics all you want, but (to quote Scotty), ya canna break the laws of physics. Something quite extraordinary will need to take place in order to overcome the extremely low mass of smaller models, particularly with T. Ten years hence, I don't even see T being a minor scale, let alone a mainstream one; it's already in serious decline. Likely it'll hang around as a "cult" scale, kept alive (sort of) by a small, enthusiastic group of tinkerers, much like TT. As for Z, there's more room for improvement, but it's so close to N in size that it really doesn't offer much of an advantage; I see it remaining a borderline novelty scale, populated by decreasingly prototypical products. I anticipate N scale nearly becoming the next HO, although I think RTR will be the big driving force. Based on current trends, I expect the market to split ever deeper between the ready-made crowd and the proto-modelers. And finally, I would like to imagine the ProtoMate as being the standard coupler of N Scale. (Well, I can dream, can't I?)

[conrail98]

The battery powered loss now being seen in O regularly and those making their way into HO will be in N scale due to advances in electronics and the decoders becoming smaller. We will no longer need to wire our layouts for electrical connectivity,

Phil

[chicken45]

Transparent aluminum.

Josh

[Philip H]

Transparent aluminum.

Josh

Computer?  Keyboard, how quaint!