Weekend Update 1/25/26

[Tom Todd]

Here in Hawaii, no snow.

[Jbub]

Here in Hawaii, no snow.

Plenty of tephra on the south side of the Big Island though. Kilauea has been putting on quite the show.

[packers#1]

Oh, that I know.  It's just all the weather junkies on FB that post worse case scenarios to drive traffic to their pages where the hype is coming from.  Then when it doesn't happen, people blast the "real" weather people saying you lied blah blah blah

FWIW, after Helene I don’t think anyone in weather in GA/SC/NC are going to communicate anything other than the worst case scenario from the weather models right up until after it happens.

[bbussey]

Whelp, this sucked

That's the Springfield train show about an hour after opening. This is the third time I've visited during a major storm and it has never been like this. I only stayed about 90 minutes. There was very little to see. Only about 20% of the vendors were open and almost all the layouts were being dismantled. Didn't bump into anyone I know, which is the first time that has ever happened.

Saturday was packed, but a number of regular exhibitors (including ESM) did cancel late as the forecast worsened. I was there Friday and Saturday to fulfill prior obligations and left Saturday night. Ironically, I also suffered an engine mishap, lost the throttle control sensor about halfway home. I made it back safely but acceleration sucked especially on inclines.

Oh, and 18-24” here with 36” drifts. Glad I left on Saturday after the show and was not exhibiting, as it would have been dead on Sunday and a nightmare to get home with show product.

[Ed Kapuscinski]

And... Done.

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[basementcalling]

Damn, the weather hype machine has taken over weekend update.  The icecrete this system put down in NOVA DMV area is no joke to shovel, if you can hammer through the armor plated top layer.

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[nkalanaga]

I drove to work today, and the roads (I-64, Us-60, US-52) were all good, except for a few ramps that could use a little work.  My driveway and the plant parking lot were solid ice, on to two inches thick, with a little snow on top.  No problem at all to drive on.  I even made it to the top of my fairly steep driveway tonight, unusual in normal snow.

Last year's January storm had 3 to 6 inches of snow under the 2 to 3 inches of ice, and my Chevy Spark didn't like it.  It would break through the ice, and at low speed, couldn't climb on top of the ice again.  This year, the ice was solid, and driving was easy.  Just take it slow.

[bbunge]

I reported 7" today of total snow and ice to CoCoRaHS .. the total liquid catch in the guage was 1.9" from 7am Sunday to 7am Monday .. earlier in the storm I had a snow ratio of 8:1 -- so if the sleet hadn't hit, we would have had the potential for about 15-16"

A Met friend was thinking of a 10:1 snow ratio early when the ice line was more south.  I think the hype for the next one has already started judging by the reaction of a neighbor.

[Maletrain]

The hype is not without some historical validation.  When I was a kid in high school, one year it snowed hard every Thursday for 6 straight weeks, starting in mid-November.  We didn't see grass until March.  We were driving on compacted snow for well over a month - in the NW suburbs of DC.  Haven't seen anything like that in decades.  But, I do read about "atmospheric rivers" these days, which repeatedly dump heavy precipitation in the same area for extended periods.  So, it seems possible to get one dumping snow here or ice, more likely.  I just hope we don't get that again.  It was much more fun when I was a teenager getting out of school for 4 day weekends every week for a month and a  half.

[bman]

We got 13" inches give or take here in Columbus. The 3 of us kept up with the driveway and sidewalks Sunday into Monday. Although I was having flashbacks of the blizzard of '78 the whole time. So glad the winds were nothing this time around. Left me time to get a half a dozen miniatures painted for an upcoming tournament as well as getting the railroad ready to get the cork road bed glued down. Not that I wouldn't have done all of that with no snow. Progress has been too slow working on a couple of modules at our club. Stay warm folks.

[John]

A Met friend was thinking of a 10:1 snow ratio early when the ice line was more south.  I think the hype for the next one has already started judging by the reaction of a neighbor.

10:1 is what we taught as the “default” rule of thumb.   

[C855B]

10:1 is what we taught as the “default” rule of thumb.

Same here. Weatherfolk where we are mentioned 20:1 and how unusual it was, also emphasizing how dry it was and wasn't going to be sticking to power lines or causing trees to topple over. That bore true in our backyard, a cedar that usually droops almost to the ground with a normal snowfall has nothing sticking to it at all.

[John]

https://www.weather.gov/arx/why_snowratios


Commonly, the percentage of water to snow is called the "snow ratio". An old rule of thumb was that for every 10 inches of snow, there would be 1 inch of water (10:1). However, this is far from the norm, and recent studies indicate that a 12:1 ratio might be more representative (on average) for the Upper Midwest. This said, there are so many variables that can affect the ratio of liquid water to snow that using a rule of thumb is usually off the mark. In fact, the snow ratios can change dramatically within a snow event itself. Some of the variables that come into play include...

    Depth of the warm layer from the surface into the snow producing cloud. The warmer it is (closer to freezing), the lower the ratio will be.
    Amount of ice in the snow producing cloud. If there is more super cooled water droplets in the cloud, snow ratios will be lower. If there is a higher amount of ice crystals, snow ratios will be higher.
    If its windy, snowflakes can fracture, losing their "lacy" structure and leading to lower accumulations (lower snow ratios).
    Deep cold, in general, promotes higher snow ratios.

[C855B]

Deep cold, in general, promotes higher snow ratios.

Yup. It was near 0°F here during the entire event.

[vermonter_railfan]

Snow didn't ruin my fun at the Springfield show this last weekend.