Locomotive production - where does the industry go from here?

[Puddington]

Spookshow's annual "locomotive of the year" topic has put a spotlight on the relative few new offerings during 2014. When you consider that one "new" manufacturer joined the scale (or re-joined; Arnold) and one company (Rapido) is weeks away from their first N scale locomotive the quantity of new locomotives offered in 2014 bears some commentary.

Re-issues and new road names of existing products aside (and these are always welcome and necessary) it appears that looking forward the number of new locomotives that we can expect will continue to arrive at a reduced rate when compared with years past. What is the cause of this:

* The economic conditions we face - disposable income
* The rapidly increasing costs of off shore production/lack of production causing unacceptable production cycle delays
* The "health of the hobby"
* Fewer locomotives to make - most of the mainstream prototypes have been made - marginal prototypes are all that's left to make.
* Increasing quality/detail demands of a market unwilling/unable to pay increased prices = less margin
* Economic conditions demand more reuse of existing tooling as opposed to capital investment - it's "repeats from here on..."
* Desire to link new locomotives to larger projects (consists)

I suspect that to some degree these all come into play for some suppliers; to what degree few of us will ever really know. Regardless; the question remains; where does the industry go from here? Will a half dozen new offerings a year; both diesel and steam combined be the high water mark hereafter? Is that to be expected; does the increase in quality, detail and road specific features make up for the reduced number of new products?

(Let's ask this question; would a new tooling, high quality, DCC/sound equipped, with road specific details RS3 or FA2 (or other existing model) be a best seller....? Would you retire your older Atlas or Like Like models for these?)

Will steam offerings increase as a percentage of new products because of the number of yet never produced or not produced in modern times standard configurations left as opposed to main stream diesels ? Is there a viable market for "designer locomotives" (highly specific, small run, high detail units - road specific (ie: CN GP40W)

As consumers of new locomotives; what do you think?

[jdcolombo]

What I'd like to see:

1.  Steam.  C&O 2-10-4 T1; Allegheny; light Mikado; true Yellowstone variation on Bachmann EM-1, a variety of 4-8-4's on the Kato FEF mechanism; NYC Hudson and other 4-6-4 variations; N&W A; Pennsy steam of all kinds (I'm not going to use the letter/number combo that sends people over the edge).   There is a LOT that is doable in steam; whether it can be done at a profit is unknown.

The question I have is whether we have reached the point (or soon will) that it is feasible for a manufacturer to make a mechanism, perhaps two-three tender styles, and then use 3D printing for a boiler shell, leaving final painting/decaling/superdetailing to the modeler.  I guess even high-end 3D printing isn't "smooth" enough with enough detail for this, but perhaps long term.

2.  Diesel.  FM H10-44 and H12-44 (after the S-2/S-4, these are the most obvious hole in the transition era switcher lineup).  Next would be a variety of small Baldwin switchers (the DS 4-4-1000 and S-12 come to mind) and yes, the AS616.

I'm perfectly OK with a small number of high-quality NEW locomotive releases every year AS LONG AS high-quality stuff that's already been produced is kept in the catalog or at least recycled from time to time.   I could use a dozen more NKP GP7's, but I can't get them.  Heck, if Atlas would just re-run the shells from time to time and let us scrounge for the mechanisms, that would be OK with me, too.  It's a terrible situation for both current modelers and folks entering the hobby to find that the exact locomotive they need was, indeed, produced - five years ago, and is now completely out of stock.  How expensive is it for a manufacturer to keep an inventory of shells?  (Yes, I know that custom-painting is another possibility, but have you every tried to custom-paint an NKP Geep in the narrow stripe scheme? Plus, that route makes the prices out of reach for a whole lot of folks who are already stretching to spend the $80-100 street price on a production loco).

And to give a more direct answer to your question - I will pay "whatever it takes" for high-quality, well-detailed locomotives for my home road (NKP).   I'm investing in two undec Atlas S-2's with sound that I will paint/decal for NKP; when Atlas runs the NKP scheme (down the road, but it will happen), I'll buy more.   I've got three Bachmann Berkshires on order, praying that they are as good as the EM-1; if they are, I will purchase more, even though I will be replacing perfectly serviceable Walthers/LL Berks and even though I suspect that I'll end up pulling the stripped-down sound decoder for an ESU LokSound or a "real" Tsunami and replacing the factory speaker.  Would gladly have paid extra for better sound up front.   I realize I'm lucky to have the resources to make these investments, but $180 for a HIGH QUALITY sound-equipped diesel doesn't faze me, and neither does $300 for a similar HIGH-QUALITY sound-equipped steamer properly detailed for the NKP.  Beats $800 for a Key brass Berkshire that you can't buy anymore anyway.  But if the manufacturer is going to charge these kinds of prices, they'd better be cutting-edge on performance.

John C.

[up1950s]

I think the answer to your question is the answer to this question . What is the biggest income group of a manufactures sales , modelers owning less than 5% DCC , owning less 30% DCC , or owning more than 30% DCC ? I feel DCC is a barometer of expendable cash as well as a detail centric mind set . If a manufacturer wants monster sales , it needs to feed the monster or the monster will feed elsewhere .

[Kisatchie]

The only new steam I'd even remotely be interested in is a Southern 4-6-2. Probably never see that one, unless Kato decides to do the Southern Crescent passenger train.

As for diesel, I'd stand in line to buy anything Southern, L&N, Illinois Central, KCS, Missouri Pacific, Southern Pacific/Cotton Belt, and UP used in 1971. I'm eagerly awaiting the Atlas Southern Sd35 locos due sometime this year.

As for super detailed locos direct from the manufacturer, I'm not interested. A detail level equal to the Atlas Classic loco line from years ago is fine with me.


Hmm... yeah, who needs
super detailed bananas...

[rrjim1]

The biggest problem I see for a n-scale loco manufactures is it seems everyone wants something different.

[randgust]

The 'out of production waiting game' is a real problem.    There have been some very good locomotives produced, already, that the investment is done on, that are simply unavailable.   One is what has been generally regarded as the 'best of breed', the Kato 2-8-2.   Other than train shows, I can't remember the last time I saw any 'in stock' at my e-tailers.    Another now appears to be the N&W J-class from Bachmann.     The Atlas GP7, is .....coming....coming....coming.....    The Atlas Shay II is coming...coming...coming.....

From the information I've had, the Kato FEF has been in development for something like three or four years.   That's how long the development cycle can become on a truly complicated effort.   

I grew up in an era where the JIT mantra (which also meant never, ever, ever keep any inventory, in process or finished goods) was accepted as gospel.   It's crept in a lot of places.   But today, given the incredible delays in production, tooling, setup, etc., it would seem to me that manufacturers/importers take a hard look at the 'build to preorder' mentality vs. 'how long would it take us to ever get another run of this stuff done?' problem.  There's a LOT of sales in this hobby that are never made because the items are simply not available at the retail level, even though tooling and investment is already done.  The cost of money (to finance inventory) is down, so is inflation.   The driving factors on JIT simply aren't as strong as they were, and the supply chain problems into China have been all over the place, along with currency fluctuations.   And, it also kills your brick and mortars because there's so little inventory to have on the shelf.

A newcomer is faced with a lot of 'yeah, it's a great product, if you can find it' or instantly becoming a scrounger on Ebay, if they will even go that route.   I certainly have been forced that way.

[tehachapifan]

The biggest problem I see for a n-scale loco manufactures is it seems everyone wants something different.

Or they want something that already exists from another mfr. How many times have we seen people screaming for an SD40-2 when the ones from Kato look great and run great?

[sirenwerks]

...AS LONG AS high-quality stuff that's already been produced is kept in the catalog or at least recycled from time to time...

I think this is an issue.  Access to models when modelers have the cash flow.  The only resolution I see to it is undecs being available.  Then again, I know how a lot of people don't paint their own.  But if manufacturers were to stock undecs and associate with a few reputable custom painters and decal manufacturers, this might help.

As for parting with existing models for better detailed ones... If an earlier model has significant flaws, like poor detail, being grossly out of dimension, etc., yes, I would buy a better release.  Otherwise, I just wish more detail parts were available, like screens and fan replacements for the various manufactured ALCO models and for Fs and 1st/2nd gen geeps (3d see-through fans for GP7/9s!).

But I do think their are opportunities for manufacturers.  My own greedy list includes EMD SW1 and SDP40; MLW RS18; BLW AS616; and ALCO C415 and RS27.

[Ngineer]

* Fewer locomotives to make - most of the mainstream prototypes have been made - marginal prototypes are all that's left to make.

Regarding the shell for an E8/E9 from Kato: They have done very few paint schemes in the last 10 or 15 years.

Just to point one out: A CB&Q E8 prototype in Silver with red bars for the California Zephyr and one for the (fake) Empire Builder. Now THAT loco is very mainstream IMHO.

Javier

[rrjim1]

In the US inventory cost money to keep it on the shelf. You can get away with stocking parts or material used to make a complete item. I know I owned a small manufacturing company for years. 

[Cameron_Talley]

The 'out of production waiting game' is a real problem.    There have been some very good locomotives produced, already, that the investment is done on, that are simply unavailable.   One is what has been generally regarded as the 'best of breed', the Kato 2-8-2.   Other than train shows, I can't remember the last time I saw any 'in stock' at my e-tailers.    Another now appears to be the N&W J-class from Bachmann.   

I don't know about the Kato Mike, but Klein's has about two dozen of the N&W J in stock.  Maybe they did another run of them?  Would make sense, given that they're restoring the real thing. 

I agree it's a real problem that product is only available for a short time, though.  Especially for someone like me whose interest in the hobby tends to come and go.  If you don't pay attention for a year or two, you might miss out on something you want that becomes impossible to get.  It's really frustrating. 

[nstars]

2.  Diesel.  FM H10-44 and H12-44 (after the S-2/S-4, these are the most obvious hole in the transition era switcher lineup).  Next would be a variety of small Baldwin switchers (the DS 4-4-1000 and S-12 come to mind) and yes, the AS616.

Indeed! More FM and Baldwin locomotives! Besides the loco's mentioned by John a FM H20-44 would be nice. And what about more Erie Builds from LL/Walthers and Baldwin DR and DRS loco's. 

Marc

[wcfn100]

Maybe some of these companies can just spend some time either updating older tooling or fleshing out more phases of a particular locomotive on the existing mechanisms.

Atlas needs to update their GP30.  IIRC, the chassis is stamped 1992.  Updates could include new sill mounted handrails, no extended range dynamic brake and proper roof fans.  Atlas could also do the GP9 phase III.  This is something many people have wanted. 

Kato could (but will never) do a Phase IV version of the NW-2 (louvers with letterboard gap) that would lend itself to many new paint schemes.  I've also sent a request for a new roof for the F units that would have low fans and the DB vent.  This one roof would give two new phases to the F unit line.  And so far it's been a mystery to me why they haven't done an E7 yet, especially now with some of the passenger sets.

I think there's still room for another F Unit manufacturer (since Kato won't ever move on anything).

I also think it's time for a new PCC trolley on par with the Peter Witt.

A finally it's just insane the there's no FM-10-44.  I really thought FMV was going to fix this this until they started all the modern and heritage junk.

Jason

[C855B]

Bullet-point city:

* The economic conditions we face - disposable income

Even in recessions there is still a sizable demo with the resources to carry on their leisure activities, although that is about to change. I am amazed there's still a market for G scale, but there remain enough well-heeled devotees to keep it alive. Anyway, there's a lot of press these days devoted to the post-Baby Boomer generations being squeezed by student loan repayment, fewer job opportunities at higher pay levels, and many of those jobs demanding foolish levels of "devotion", where those who have the money don't have the time.

* The rapidly increasing costs of off shore production/lack of production causing unacceptable production cycle delays

There's your biggest problem facing the industry. See the next bullet point.

* The "health of the hobby"

It's more like the health of the hobbyists. A combination of the above two points, the folks with truly disposable income are dying off. The extended production cycles are depressing... "Am I going to see that model before I die?" has become a legitimate question.

* Fewer locomotives to make - most of the mainstream prototypes have been made - marginal prototypes are all that's left to make.

That's big. I have my own bucket list of unlikely-to-be-produced niche models (see below).

* Desire to link new locomotives to larger projects (consists)

That works in very, very few cases. And Kato just covered the biggest opportunity there, and dare I say did a bang-up job with it.

(Let's ask this question; would a new tooling, high quality, DCC/sound equipped, with road specific details RS3 or FA2 (or other existing model) be a best seller....? Would you retire your older Atlas or Like Like models for these?)

Road specific, yes. I have done exactly that a couple of times already - BLI PA's replacing Kato/Con-Cor, BLI E8/9 replacing Kato. I don't do sound, so that's not an issue for me other than the additional cost when there's not a no-sound option.

But let's not get too far away from the notion of re-running existing issues but with new tooling. I have mentioned before the Kato problem - SD40, 40-2 and 45, all with hoods noticeably too wide, so wide the overall proportion ratios are corrupted. They don't look quite right. This is not a detailing thing, this is a basic fidelity issue. The market remains open to better executions of "already been done".

Will steam offerings increase as a percentage of new products because of the number of yet never produced or not produced in modern times standard configurations left as opposed to main stream diesels ?

Maybe for certain "iconic" locomotives. I will speak only from my own experience that steam models when compared to diesels - even modern production - have the multi-whammy of being more expensive, far less reliable, insanely difficult to fix, and have less pulling capacity. I like my steam models, what I don't like is the care and feeding which take away from more pleasant/creative pursuits.

Is there a viable market for "designer locomotives" (highly specific, small run, high detail units - road specific (ie: CN GP40W)

Again speaking only for myself, UP "soup to nuts" stuff of the 1960s: AS616, RS27, GP30B, GP9B, SD24B, DD35, DDA35, C855, C855B, U50C. I have been making multiple attempts to start on some of these, but my modeling skills have diminished with disuse and discouragement comes quickly. If these were available on modern mechanisms even at premium prices I would reach for my wallet quickly - time is my most precious resource these days.

[Denver Road Doug]

Or they want something that already exists from another mfr. How many times have we seen people screaming for an SD40-2 when the ones from Kato look great and run great?

I'd say that's a tad unfair.  A short release by Kato every 4-5 years doesn't really scream "already exists" to me.   My son wasn't born the last time we saw a straight SD40 from Kato, and he's 10.   Of course this alludes to the already mentioned "out of production waiting game" which I agree is a big part of the problem.

I think there are probably a million variables affecting all of this...
-"Waiting game"
-Decision makers' hands tied by money guys
-Consumers that are too cheap to pay any price
-Consumers that will pay big prices to get what they want
-Consumers that simply complain regardless
-Consumers that rally around a particular product but don't buy it
-Manufacturers that make "head scratcher" releases and wonder why something doesn't sell...then making all their decisions going forward based on that failure.
-Alpha-male Employee Bob that overly influences what gets done
-Company owner grandson likes pretty colors
-Worry about competing announcement of identical product
-Lack of market research (I think this one is huge)
-License/legal issues
-Product safety concerns (especially in N/Z due to choke hazards)
-Market issues
-Overseas production issues (big)
-Economy
-Technology hurdles
-Physical limitations of materials for reproducing a specific model feature
-Inventory management
-New hobbyist experience (can't find an SD40-2 or 2-8-2 anywhere) harming growth
-Geography bias
-Weird management situations (Kato vs Kato USA, et al)

Ran out of time but I know I could name at least two dozen more things that affect the situation.