Atlas Jan Announcements

[pogopod]

It doesn't matter anyway.  The world ends in 2012.

Matt, do you know when in 2012?  I have to make some vacation plans.

[Mark5]

It doesn't matter anyway.  The world ends in 2012.

Yeah, so you've read Rodney Dangerfield's prophecies too!

[wcfn100]

How did you guys really think this Ready-to-Run market was going to play out?

Jason

[lock4244]

Rapido just announced a run of leg rest coaches that are priced ~10% higher than the earlier lightweight coaches, and Rapido has their 'own' factory. IM has recently raised the MSRP on their freightcars. This is not exclusive to Atlas.

[Mark5]

On prices, I will quote myself  : from 4/23/2005 on the Aforum:

There is mounting international pressure (largely from the US govt) for China to de-link the Yuan from the dollar.

Some think that the Yuan is undervalued against the dollar by as much as 33%. If this is true you can imagine the effect on prices this would have.

While it does not seem imminent - it is inevitable that the the currencies will eventually be de-linked.

[John]

Matt, do you know when in 2012?  I have to make some vacation plans.

December 21, 2012

[FrankCampagna]

This isn't new. The original RS-3 went from $39 to nearly sixty in a few years. Along with marriage, That priced me out of the market. Since this is a hobby, we have to choose carefully how we spend our money. I'd love some of the newer Atlas stuff. However, I'm forced to settle for second-hand repaints. Time to get serious about retirement.

Frank

[mcjaco]

Matt, do you know when in 2012?  I have to make some vacation plans.

The entire planet will be warm.  Very warm.  Don't worry. 

[inkaneer]

Again, this is all cyclical.  When it got too expensive for Atlas to have product manufactured in Japan, they found an alternative.  The kids are not being priced out, as there many less expensive avenues remain available (Atlas Trainman, Bachmann, etcetera).  The sole issue here is that specific models/schemes that people want are being priced higher than what they expected.  And while that is disappointing (due to circumstance, not greed), the current increases will not bring the hobby tumbling down. 

I don't think anyone has said that this is the straw that broke the camel's back.  So the hobby will not come tumbling down.  But this is a small market and small forces in small markets have large repercussions.   Disposable income is under attack from all sides these days.  The market will undoubtedly shrink more than what it already has during this recession.  Price will affect demand which will affect supply which will affect price which will affect demand which will affect..., etc. until some point is reached where a new balance is achieved.  Where this will be is anyone's guess but in all probability the market will shrink. 

[John]

The only way to do this topic justice is to compare apples to apples ..

Lets look at the 90ton hopper .. and use the cost of money based on the CPI calculator @ http://data.bls.gov/

March 2002 -   $6.95    Buying power - $6.95    Difference   $0
Dec 2003    -   $7.95                         $7.35                     $0.60
May/Apr2005    $7.95                         $7.54                    $0.41
Apr/May2006    $8.50                         $7.79                    $0.71
Sept 2009       $12.95                        $8.29                    $4.66


B23-7  
Oct 2000    $99.95                         $99.95                   $0
Jun 2004    $99.95                         $109.64                  $ -6.99
Dec 2005    $99.95                         $113.36                  $ -13.67
Dec 2009    $109.95                        $124.54                  $ -15.49

Dash 8-40C
Feb 2008      $109.95                        $109.95                 $0
Sep 2009    $119.95                        $109.56                 $10.39

Dash 8-40CW
Oct 2008    $139.95                        $139.95                 $0
Oct 2009    $139.95                        $139.45                 $ -0.50
Jan 2011    $144.95                        $141.74                  $ -3.21

The calculations are based on the MSRP, and the cost of money per the consumer price index .. while prices have gone up, the cost increase of the 8-40CW has actually gone down by $3.21 relative to what the CPI indicates.

What is odd is the same time frame, the cost of the 8-40C shot up by over $10 in one year .. but if you compare the same time frame (2008-2009), it looks out of whack compared to the 8-40C

It also looks like the old Trainman stuff is carrying the freight so to speak, with a fairly hefty MSRP increase between 2006 and 2009, when CPI only went up a little ..

Atlas really held the line on the B23-7s .. they appear to have gone down in overall price when compared to the CPI .. so, if I have this wrong, please correct it for me .. I am not an MBA ..

[CBQ Fan]

What I am concerned about is that Atlas will price themselves out of customers and instead of lowering prices they will say there is no market for n scale and stop production.  BUT this is a good opportunity for someone else to come in and take market share away from Atlas.  Prices should not go up $15 month over month on new releases.

[daniel_leavitt2000]

Isn't the CPI heavily dependant on Oil and Food prices? Shouldn't we be compairing the prices of durable goods?

[Bob Bufkin]

The price of plastic is directly related to the price of oil.  Higher oil prices, higher plastic prices. 

[John]

Isn't the CPI heavily dependant on Oil and Food prices? Shouldn't we be compairing the prices of durable goods?

About the CPI inflation calculator

The CPI inflation calculator uses the average Consumer Price Index for a given calendar year. This data represents changes in prices of all goods and services purchased for consumption by urban households. This index value has been calculated every year since 1913. For the current year, the latest monthly index value is used.

and everything you ever wanted to know

http://www.bls.gov/cpi/cpifact8.htm

[Chris333]

I will gladly pay $100+ for a steamer, but it is hard for me to shell out more than $40 for a GP7.

On the other hand I don't mind paying $25+ for a prototypical freight car.