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Ha! Wait until all the new tariffs kick in! "Model Railroading for the Rich and Famous" will debut.
I'm no economic guru, but if it brings production back to here I don't see that as being a bad thing. I can't speak to whether the cost advantage in China is gone, and I know that these prices are in large part due to the phenomenal increase in the money supply by the Fed, but it sure looks like these MSRP's are at parity with domestically produced model trains now. Micro Trains produces models of similar detail and quality for the same or lower price than the Chinese made stuff now.Kudos to Micro-Trains, hopefully there's a sense of pride and accomplishment at MTL headquarters for sticking with Made in America; this is no small accomplishment. They've made it work here while everyone went overseas for low cost labor and zero environmental regulation. Be nice to see things come full circle.
...Nice that they're doing the early TTX Trailer Train scheme....
I have a lot of thoughts on this given that it directly impacts my professional field, but to summarize a very loaded conversation, it doesn’t and it never would. The jobs that have left by and large are jobs which Americans don’t want to do and which aren’t very valuable from a labor input perspective. What we have here is a lot of more technical machine operator work, detailed assembly work, and precise chemical mixing work. Being able to have the textile/manual assembly jobs which don’t generate much value from the amount of labor put in somewhere else and importing those products frees up the labor capital here for more technical work which produces a higher value. It’s why you’re seeing more and more companies leave China for other southeast Asian countries (primarily Vietnam amongst others) and the next area for this development will be Africa, whereas China is starting to see more of the technical assembly and production develop as well. Fun fact, Chinese companies are now also outsourcing to Mexico like auto makers have for the same reasons as us. Admittedly, tariffs are a contributing factor for the Mexico moves when it comes to importing to the US from the last administration, but that’s more of a second level driver rather than the primary driver (as in, it would still be happening without tariffs just at a more gradual shift; the shift to Vietnam etc would still be happening regardless though).Honestly what’s much more concerning isn’t outsourcing, but AI being able to run machines that operators previously managed. One of my previous plants, making power cables, is a great example of this. The wire drawers and stranders that create the conductor would require a lot of automated material handling in a small space (ie very expensive), but you could have an AI with visual sensors that could run it (and with a lot of investment in load cells and adjustable tensioners have it run the cable out more evenly), but you’re going to need people to man the wire drawers like they do now and would see only a slight reduction in labor needed for stranders. But the main insulating lines? With an optical sensor and tying the extruders in with new controls you could pretty much get rid of all the high paid operators for those lines and have maybe one or two guys dropping reels in and out (probably one of the AI can talk to each other). Same in the post insulation finishing lines, you’re going to still need people to manually move the material but much less running the machines depending on the amount of investment. Two critical factors that influence this. One, how much capital are you willing to put in versus how much do you get out? Yes BMW has a fleet of robots they’re testing out at the Spartanburg plant close to me but that’s a gigantic outlay of capital and upkeep for those compared to a human workforce. The main pinch point, in my opinion, is the AI being able to interact with the physical world. See the cable plant description above. Cutting and cold welding cable, loading things in and out and actually moving the cable, high investment. Tying/upgrading controllers in to the extrusion lines? Also high but I’d wager not quite as much. Add in how much that can help reduce scrap and improve material usage and it’s pretty low hanging fruit. But the second, is the demographic decline. Tying in the declining birth rate for many countries and these sorts of integrations are going to be more and more necessary and needed due to a smaller labor pool from which to train and employ. This is another big factor especially which is influencing China from their one child policy, as well as Japan and South Korea. Given how our birth rate here and many in Europe are trending, what’s happening there over the next decade is going to give us a good look at what issues we will need to handle and prepare for in the next 20 to 30.In the interest of forum rules etc, I’d love to continue any discussion of this via PM or email; while I don’t think this is necessarily a political post in and of itself discussion of these will inevitably result in discussing politics.
Yeah, I don't want to get into the weeds on tariffs and whatnot. I just worry that these escalating prices are going to fulfill the age old 'the hobby is dying' meme.
I am constantly gobsmacked by the posts on this forum from people who say they just bought 30 of this car or 10 of that locomotive. Clearly there are some people out there with very deep pockets who are doing more than most when it comes to keeping the industry afloat.
The hobby has been dying for 50 years.. Yet product variety with new MFGs and new production keeps growing... So... someone is buying it.. And every time I see someone put old prices in the inflation calculator, things match up pretty close.... So Model Railroading is as expensive as it ever was...?
Okay I'll take a WTTX even if I have to modify the hitch positions and would prefer to also get an unpatched version. Yay for 2026.
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Topic: Athearn Announcements December 27, 2024 (Read 3185 times)
